Let me kick off this post starting from the conclusion: if you live in the Western world and you don’t legitimately look like a male model, or at the very least like the newly created figure of the “male instagram model” , then don’t even bother with online dating (and by the way, deluding yourself into thinking that you look like that doesn’t count). And let me follow-up with a promise: this will be my last post on Western world online dating before moving on to some more productive topics.
During my brief online dating stint in summer 2017, when I tried a few of those dating apps and quickly left in disgust, common knowledge in the online male community was that 80% of women were competing for the top 20% of men. At the time I doubted those numbers were backed up by any empirical evidence, and I thought it was more a matter of the Pareto principle, aka the 80-20 rule, being forced onto the online dating scene. The reason behind my doubts was pretty legitimate: even assuming that in picture I don’t fare as well as in real life, which is actually a very reasonable assumption in my case considering that this discrepancy was already widely known to me even before online dating, well even under that assumption, I had no doubt whatsoever that my best pictures were in the top 20% of the pool. So, me I was doing my part, but the 80% of women were hardly doing their part…
As you know if you have read my previous post, at the time I left pretty quickly and never looked back. Then, around one month ago, I stumbled into a reddit sub where I noticed people were uploading the data they got from Tinder. Both men and women. And this is when things got interesting, because the beautiful thing of the Information Age is that information is all around us…😱…and this newly available data provided me with some revealing insights.
I compiled a table with some of the women’s data available on that sub, but before we start looking at the numbers, I want to make an important note: in at least a couple of the posts I got the data from, there was an insurrection of unhappy men bashing at the OP for her incredibly high level of swiping pickiness. The thing is, having a go at a girl who was kind enough to share her Tinder data will not help change the online dating dynamics, since girls are not going to relax their swiping requirements just because a few men expressed their disappointment on the matter in a sub. The only circumstance under which girls will need to make some changes to their swiping habits is when said swiping habits no longer work for them. Men should refrain from attacking the girls who were kind enough to upload their Tinder data, and should thank them instead, because this data is useful.
Here’s the data I found:
% Right swipes
On average the six girls swiped right on 4.1% of profiles, and this is including girl D, who had a much higher right-swipe percentage. The higher % Right of Girl D was not driven by ugliness, since she managed to match with 67% of her right swipes, but rather may have been driven by low self-esteem issues and constant need for male validation. Excluding girl D, the remaining five girls swiped right on average on as many as 2.5% of profiles (!). Let’s take a round number of 4% to cater for all six girls.
It’s important to realise that these 4% probability is not equally spread across the pool of men present in the app, but rather to a limited group of “ridiculously good-looking” guys. Assuming there are 1,000 guys in total in the app, I’d say the most realistic scenario is 10 guys (representing 1% of 1,000) being right-swiped by each and every girl, and another 50 guys sharing the remaining 3% of probability. This leaves 940 guys with virtually no action whatsoever.
The six girls on average converted 58% of their right swipes into matches, with girl B and girl E at the bottom end with 28% and 34% respectively, and girl F at the top with a stunning 92% (but she was the second least picky of the group). Surely 28% and 34% may seem small conversion rates compared to 92%, but it’s worth remembering that these two girls swiped right on 1% and 3% of profiles respectively. The overwhelming majority of guys would sign up immediately for this kind of conversion rates. Now someone may be wondering:
Why are girls having such “low” conversion rates, are guys not supposed to swipe right on every girl?!
Well…not the kind of guys these girls are swiping right on, my friend.
This is the number of different guys the girls met up with after all the swiping. The number is fairly similar for all girls, but their stint in the app varies somehow. Very interesting is girl E, 18 years old, who met four guys during the one month of 1% right-swiping and clearly said in her post that she hooked-up with all of them (most likely to “find herself”).
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On reddit I also found data from “three siblings of similar level of attractiveness” (one brother, two sisters). I rearranged the data into a different format to allow for better comparison, and as you can see there is quite a significant difference in the “right swipe to match %” between the brother and the two sisters (and by the way, as absurd as it sounds, for men’s standards the brother was not even doing that bad at 2% conversion rate).
The different online behaviour of the two sisters offers another interesting observation: Sister 2 displayed the typical 95-5 female swiping pattern (95% left, 5% right), while Sister 1 swiped right on a stunningly high 22% of profiles (and also had a match-to-meet-up rate which was four times higher). Like Girl D in the previous example, Sister 1 may be more in need of male attention and validation due to low self-esteem, or maybe just has a much higher sex drive.
The enormous pool of men available on dating apps has inevitably led women to develop an extremely high level of pickiness, and unrealistic expectations. The “he’s out of my league” concept seems not to apply on these apps, and most girls are firmly convinced that they deserve nothing short than a male-model-looking guy, irrespective of their own level of beauty. And they are convinced of that simply because they have real a shot at those guys on these apps.
As an example, Girl C swiped right on 1% of the profiles and managed to meet with 56% of them. You will be forgiven for thinking, like I was, that she could afford this extreme pickiness because she’s hot. Digging in the reddit thread, I bumped into pictures of her face (they had been previously uploaded into a different skincare sub) and guess what…she’s absolutely plain faced. Not ugly, but not pretty either. Just plain and average, and there is nothing wrong with her as a person for looking like that, of course. On the other hand, where there is something wrong is the fact that she got to swipe right on 1% of profiles and match with 56% of them. She did that simply because she could.
The online dating scene is seriously rigged, but the good news is that attendance on men’s part is not mandatory. The vast majority of guys going into online dating either fail completely, or manage to go out with girls they are not attracted to, which is just a different kind of failure to be honest.
Seriously guys, do yourself a favour and don’t bother with online dating in the Western world. Your own perception and the perception you have on women will greatly benefit as a result.
In the example of the three siblings, assuming they all swiped on 30,000 profiles during one year (meaning 100 swipes a day with a couple of “months off” during the year) these are the respective numbers of swipes, matches and dates for the three of them.
In this hypothetical scenario, Sister 1 amassed 4,158 matches, meet-ups with 166 different people, and most likely thousands and thousands of messages in between. The level of effort needed to sustain all this looks more demanding than a job really. And of course, this female pattern is definitely the exception rather than the rule (even in the case of Girl D in the first example, ok she had thousands of matches, but she only met with 13 of them in the end).
A girl made a comment on this post in one of the forums where I shared it, and since I found her perspective on using Tinder extremely useful, I asked her for her words to be reported in here and she agreed to that.
Just let me say something before we have a look at that. This blog is for people who want to put in the effort and improve themselves, for people who want to become High Value, and understand that getting there requires hard work, there is no shortcut. The key mindset required to achieve that is being in peace with ourselves first, and with the world around us next.
But careful on the first point. Being in peace with ourselves doesn’t mean spending the day on the sofa lazily watching TV, not in the slightest. It means accepting the unchangeables without complaining, and working hard on what can be changed. Damn hard.
And careful on the second point as well. Being in peace with the world around doesn’t mean remaining constantly aligned with the latest mainstream trend of our ever more hypocritical and politically correct society. Not at all. It means being able to think with our own head and seeing things for what they really are, rather than what society wants us to believe they are. It means focusing our efforts where we can have an impact, while at the same time accepting that the global trends are influenced by forces over which we have no control whatsoever (hello social engineers). It means elevating ourselves above the trivialities of life, and learning to differentiate amongst the meaningful and the meaningless things which are forever interfering with our day. And being in peace with the world also means being in peace with women, of course. Sure, flaking, ghosting and all that exists, but it’s part of the game, and it happens in both directions (if you have only ever been on the receiving end of that, stay tuned and we’ll work on improving your Fundamentals to fix this problem). Sure, every now and then you will encounter the odd Evil Bitch, just as well as a sweet girl will encounter the odd dickhead who first promises the moon, only to then disappear after sex (in terms of status, that is really as low as it gets for a man). But you handle the odd Evil Bitch like the girl handles the odd dickhead. And keep also in mind that the perception you have on women depends mainly on where you meet them (or would like to meet them), and in fact me back in the day I wrote off online dating first and nightgame not long after. And never looked back.
Since over here we are in peace with women, after all this talking here are her words for you:
“Can concur. It’s a full-time job.
Myself and many other women I know abandon Tinder because it’s exhausting. Trying to keep up with all the messages and then having guys get annoyed when you don’t respond back the same week – or even day!
It’s like opening your inbox at work after getting back from vacation. But every day.
1. We don’t swipe right a lot because we don’t want more matches. We have more than we can cope with already.
2. We don’t message first because we don’t want more conversations. We already have too many to cope with.
3. We don’t respond to lame openers because we already have enough okay-ish conversations. And we need to get some work done.
4. We don’t agree to date regularly because I’m already going out on 2 okay-ish new dates a week and schedule just is too damn full.
I don’t think we are picky because we want some male model. We are picky because otherwise it’s overwhelming.”
Thanks a lot for sharing your view :)
And now let me repeat my own conclusion on this Tinder thing: guys, do yourself a favour and don’t bother with online dating in the Western world. Your own perception and the perception you have of girls will greatly improve as a result.
 The newly created figure of the “male instagram model”…one of the wonders of the Information Age 😱.
• Understanding women: after online dating